DIAGNOSTICS AND FORECASTING OF INNOVATIVE RATING INDICATORS OF THE REPUBLIC UZBEKISTAN
Abstract
This article examines the possibilities of using ARMA, AR(I)MA and Box-Jenkins models based on the Eviews12 software package to forecast the Global Innovation Index (GII) rating of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The study presents forecast results for 2025-2030 based on rating data for the period 2012-2024. The four stages of the Box-Jenkins methodology - identification, assessment, diagnostics and forecasting processes - are analyzed in detail, and the importance of choosing the optimal model is emphasized. The results obtained show that the innovation rating is expected to continue in a positive trend, but sluggishness may lead to a decrease in indicators. This method is important in the strategic management of innovation processes, the formation of economic development strategies and the adoption of public administration decisions. The results of the study are recommended for use by representatives of various industries in the formation of their plans and roadmaps.
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